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COACH KURT AT LARGE.....W, 7/15/15
Posted on: 07-14-2015

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Time for the Tigers to face
reality.

In this era of the thing called
Sabermetrics (the empirical
analysis of baseball via statistics)
it's time for the Tigers to use
simple mathematics.

The Tigers entered the All-Star
break even at 44-44 and nine games behind AL-Central leading Kansas City.

In the 15 previous MLB seasons of the 2000s, not once in the 45 division
races had any team trailed by nine games and come back to win a division
title.

In the last three seasons where two different teams qualified for a
wildcard playoff spot, no team trailing in its division by nine games at the
break has managed even that one game wildcard roulette bid.

In the first dozen years of the 2000s where just one team qualified
for a wildcard spot, only five clubs trailing in their division by over nine
games at the AS-break became wildcard playoff entries. All five of those
had remarkable circumstances:

In 2001 the Oakland A's were 19 games out at All-Star time and became
a wildcard team. That A's squad finished 14 games back of AL-West winning
Seattle and had to win 102 games to qualify.

In 2003 the fourth place Florida Marlins trailed AL-East leading Atlanta
by 13 games at the All-Star break and still were 10 behind the Braves at the
close of the season. The Marlins managed to grab the wildcard spot by posting
91 wins and went on to win the World Series in six games vs the New York
Yankees.

The 2004 Houston Astros were 10 and a half out at the break and actually
lost ground in the standings, finishing 13 games back of the NL-Central champion
St. Louis Cardinals. However, Houston's 92 wins were enough for a wildcard spot.

Houston was 11 and a half down the next year, then finished second to the
Cardinals again in 2005, 11 full games back but with 89 wins for a wildcard slot.

The last MLB team to go from double digits down in their division at the All
Star break and still win a wildcard berth were the 2007 New York Yankees.
Behind Boston by 10 games in July, the Yanks closed to within two games of
the AL-East Champ Red Sox by season's end. New York's 94 wins gained a
wildcard entry to the post-season.

So, the MINIMUM number of victories to reach a wildcard spot when so far
behind at the All-Star break over the past 15 seasons is 89.

Can the 44-44 Tigers go 45-29 the rest of the way to reach 89-73?

With no Miggy for at least a month it ain't likely.

There's no need to wait until the July 31st non-waiver trading deadline.

It's time to start selling off potential free agents like All-Star LHP David
Price, LFielder Yoenis Cespedes, CA Alex Avila, etc. RIGHT NOW.


COACH KURT


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